Dell With It

This week takes us to Bean Town and TPC Boston for the 2nd leg of the playoffs. Last year Justin Thomas took home the hardware at the Dell Technologies Championship on his way to claiming the 2017 FedEx Cup. Just writing “The Tournament Players Club” makes me cringe at the thought of another -25 score and a run away victory. This TPC course is a little bit different than most. The Arnold Palmer design underwent an extensive renovation by one of my favorite architects, Gill Hanse back in 2007. Brad Faxon also worked alongside Gill as a consultant for the project.

Classic Hanse bunkerin is on display throughout TPC Boston

New life was breathed into this course and the result was an award winning par 72, 7,241 course. They were awarded the “Best Private Remodel” in 2007. Everything Gill touches seems to turn to gold and this course is no exception. Last year there were on 11 players double digit under par. Music to my ears. At a 3000′ level, the routing looks interesting and seems to be cut through a large block of woods, which will put a premium on driving the golf ball well. Another thing I like are the two book end holes. Number 1, a 365 yard drive-able par 4 will spring board many players to an early -1 start and Number 18, a short 530 yard par 5 that will hopefully provide some fireworks at the end of some rounds over the weekend. There are 6 lakes and 58 bunkers that will help protect the course. I’d expect some thick rough and tricky bent greens like we saw last weekend in New Jersey.

TPC Boston Routing

A look at the routing map at TPC Boston. Back nine very standard but the front is very interesting.

There are a few major story lines coming into this week. The biggest being Rickie Fowler pulling out of his second playoff event. News came out back at the PGA that he was struggling from an oblique injury. He sat out last week in hopes to be ready for Boston but it looks like he is going to play it safe again. Image result for rickie fowlerI honestly don’t blame him. He is already a lock for the BMW next week and if he isn’t going to be 100% by the Tour Championship, he might as well focus on the Ryder Cup, something he has worked for the last 2 seasons. With the Ryder Cup one month away, I think he is doing the right thing by waiting until next week before giving it a go. Rory returns to the field this week after sitting the last one out as well. I think he needed to work on a few things after the PGA and Bridgestone. The driver is his biggest weapon, but if you can’t hit it inside of 25 feet from 110 yards, it does you no good. My bet is on Rory coming back more dialed in and ready to make a push. He only moved back 7 spots to 28th in the standings coming into this week.Image result for rory mcilroy A solid week will set him up nicely going forward and keep him in the hunt for the FedEx Cup. Lastly, there are rumors swirling about next years FedEx Cup format changing. We can’t even get thru the most compelling year on the tour in the last 10 without changing something. The idea of the person in 1st place heading into the last event getting a 10 stroke lead a the Tour Championship is asinine. It crowns the champion before the last tournament, making the Tour Championship a glorified victory lap. I don’t mind the idea of giving the regular season points champ a bonus and having a separate prize for the playoffs winner. If that rule was applied this season, DJ would get some kind of reward for his stellar play regardless of what happens during the double points filled playoffs. Before they change the rules for the second time in 11 years, there needs to be some serious thought and consideration into this. We can’t solve this over night so we might as well get to some picks.

As it has been for the last few months DJ is the favorite at +850 followed by JT at +1000. No surprises with the top two players but the same can’t be said for everyone else.

  • Dustin Johnson +850
  • Justin Thomas +1000
  • Brooks Koepka +1200
  • Rory McIlroy +1600
  • Jason Day +1600
  • Tiger Woods +1800
  • Jordan Spieth +2000
  • Jon Rahm +2500
  • Justin Rose +2500
  • Adam Scott +2500
  • Tony Finau +2800
  • Patrick Cantlay +3300
  • Tommy Fleetwood +3300
  • Bryson DeChambeau +3300
  • Henrik Stenson +3300
  • Hideki Matsuyama +3300
  • Patrick Reed +3300
  • Webb Simpson +4000
  • Billy Horschel +4500
  • Phil Mickelson +5000

It’s wild to see Bryson be at +3300 after winning last week and moving to #1 in the FedEx Cup. Would I pick him to go back to back, absolutely not, but still you’d think he’d be respected a little more than T-12 in odds. Tiger has retreated some after a lack luster T-40 at Ridgewood, but I think he will contend this week.

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,500):

Tommy Boy has been a machine this year on tour making 15/16 cuts, with 12 top 25’s and 5 top 10’s. He finished off a solid week with a -3, 68 in the final round at Ridgewood, sealing a T-20 finish for the Brit. Fleetwood didn’t play here last year but with the likes of JT, John Rahm, Phil and other long hitters fairing well, he should be looking forward to TPC Boston. Sitting at 12th in SG off the Tee and 7th SG Total, there should be no reason for him not to be in contention.

Justin Rose ($9,300)

In an effort to honor Her Majesty the Queen, I’m going to double down on her favorite lad Rosey after a missed cut last week. My logic is he got the cut out of the way, now the next one is no where in the near future. Not only is he going to make the cut, he will build off a T-10 finish here last year and better that. With a solid performance this week he will make up for the ground he lost last week, keeping him in the mix for the $10,000,000 in Atlanta. If you are betting with the big boys, not a bad buy at +2500 to win, a mere $50 bucks would yield you $1250.

Tiger Woods ($9,700)

Yea, I’m picking him again. I told you, he will be on my roster every week because his record speaks for itself compared to everyone else as far as win percentage and top 10 percentage. The last time Tiger played here he finished T-65 in 2013. Throw that out the window.

Image result for tiger woods whiteboard shaft

Peep the shaft…same shaft he played when he won his last major.

Tiger is back to his Mitsubishi White Board Driver Shaft and has added a degree of loft, basically saying his swing was at a point he could go back to it. Yes, I’ve heard and seen enough. After hitting 67% of his fairways last week and continuing his solid iron play, I think he finds his stroke and gets it going this week. I’m not saying he wins because I don’t want to jinks it. So, “He’s not going to win”

Marc Leishman ($8,000)

Leish played extremely well here last year finishing up with a solo 3rd place finish. He was tied for the lead headed into the final round with Justin Thomas but couldn’t keep up with JT’s blistering final round 66. The man has made a ton of money this year and sits at 24th in the FedEx Cup standings. At a solid value for his ranking, the past success and current form makes him a solid 4th option on this 6-man roster.

Glue Guys: Emiliano Grillo ($7,100) and Kevin Na ($7,400)

Lets make some money.

Webb

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